Deaths plunge, says Chi Trib on page 12:

BAGHDAD – U.S. military deaths plunged in May to the lowest monthly level in more than four years and civilian casualties were down sharply, too, as Iraqi forces assumed the lead in offensives in three cities and a truce with Shiite extremists took hold.

Look closely, thin right-hand column in hard copy, 2/3 of page length.  Then:

But many Iraqis as well as U.S. officials and private security analysts are uncertain whether the current lull signals a long-term trend or is simply a breathing spell like so many others before.

U.S. commanders also warn the relative peace is fragile because no lasting political agreements have been reached among the Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish communities.

It’s an AP story whose hard-copy head, “U.S. troop deaths in Iraq at 4–year low: Civilian fatalaties also down dramatically,” promised a good deal; the on-line head better fits the story — “Deaths in Iraq plunge, but will it last?”

A skeptic backs this up:

“The security situation is much better than in the past three or four months, and I am making more money now,” said Falih Radhi, who runs a food store in eastern Baghdad. “Despite this, I have a feeling that this positive situation won’t last long and that violence may come back again.”

Ah yes, analysis by grocer.

Then details to back up optimism, including impending U.S. troop cuts.  Then non-grocer experts are called on, ranging from skeptical to cautious.  And there we have it.

Meanwhile, Wash Post editorializes on “The Iraqi Upturn,” telling us, “Don’t look now, but the U.S.-backed government and army may be winning the war.”

Details are given to support analysts’ “astonishment” at Iraqi government and military success and Al Qaeda failure. 

So many of its leaders have now been captured or killed that U.S. Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, renowned for his cautious assessments, said that the terrorists have “never been closer to defeat than they are now.”

The U.S. surge apparently paved the way for Iraqi coming into their own.  “Too early to celebrate,” says the Post, but what we see at this point

ought to mandate an already-overdue rethinking by the “this-war-is-lost” caucus in Washington, including Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.).

Pullouts are possible but not as surrender, and anti-warriors might have to change their tune.  For instance,  

When Mr. Obama floated his strategy for Iraq last year, the United States appeared doomed to defeat. Now he needs a plan for success.