Victory in 2010 for GOP?

What do you know? Wash. Examiner’s Byron York tries this one on for size:

It’s a possibility many Republicans speak of only in whispers and Democrats are just now beginning to face. After passionate and contentious fights over health care, the environment, and taxes, could Democrats lose big — really big — in next year’s elections?

No, say many Dems, pointing to Obama’s popularity. So what? says one Dem strategist:

“I think what’s going to happen is Obama’s going to be fine, and the Democrats in Congress are going to get their asses kicked in 2010, . . . . This is following a curve like the Clinton years: take on really controversial things early, fail, or succeed partially, ask Democrats to take really tough votes, and then lose. A lot of guys are going to get beat, but the president has time to recover.”

But Repubs need 40 House seats to take the reins. But that’s 12 fewer than they took in 1994, the year of the Newt. Anyhow, even short of 40, they could cut Pelosi’s margin considerably, and with that her room to maneuver.

The polls are definitely moving in the GOP’s direction. Just look at the Real Clear Politics average of the generic ballot question, which asks whether, if the election were held today, you would vote for your local Democratic or Republican candidate for Congress. It’s been dominated by Democrats for the last few years — until now.

In recent weeks, poll after poll has shown Republicans neck-and-neck, or even ahead, of Democrats. Even a National Public Radio survey found Republicans in the lead. [Can’t find this.] “There’s no question that you’re seeing a shift across virtually all the polling,” says one GOP strategist, “with Democrats losing ground.”

The town hall meetings have something to do with this.

“This month has opened our eyes,” says one plugged-in [Republican] House aide. “We’re seeing real people who are fired up who weren’t engaged before — the first time we’ve had a popular movement that could really benefit us electorally.”

Gallup numbers undercut Dems’ accusations of mobsterism: “34 percent of respondents said they were more sympathetic [to town hall questioners], while just 21 percent said less sympathetic.”

This wouldn’t hurt Obama?

Some Obama supporters think it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. “The truth is, Democratic presidents do better when there’s a Republican Congress,” says the Democratic strategist [quoted above]. “If there were a Republican Congress, there would be things that are non-starters.”

Huh? Such as?

Things like a public option in health care reform, a massive cap-and-trade energy scheme, and all sorts of tax increases . . . proposals that are popular with the Democratic base but unpopular with the independent voters who hold the president’s fate in their hands.

Argument apparently being that Obama could safely ignore his base and be free to play for independent votes. Wouldn’t have San Francisco Nancy (Pelosi), Hollywood Henry (Waxman), Massachusetts Barney (Frank), and others of their ilk to worry about.

But this assumes he wants to be free of those fellows and girls. Does he?

BAD NEWS, OR GOOD NEWS? . . .

. . . asks Instapundit, as Pace Of Stimulus Spending Plummets:

Stimulus bill spending has slowed to a trickle, despite President Obamas June order to his Cabinet to speed it up.

The average stimulus spending per week has dropped severely, to just $4.2 billion over the past month from $9.7 billion during the prior four months. The government spent $2.9 billion in the week ending Aug. 7.

It’s a hit-or-miss operation?

Taxpayer groups say the numbers show spending decisions are random and prove that the $787 billion stimulus program has had no effect on the economy.

What do you expect?

This is a typical bureaucracy. They dont operate in an efficient way. They cant operate in an efficient way and make an impact, said Leslie Paige, media director for Citizens Against Government Waste.

The boss said one thing, minions do another:

The spending has slowed despite Mr. Obamas declaration in June that he was not satisfied with its pace, and his demand that his Cabinet secretaries accelerate the distribution of stimulus funds.

Insta answers “tentatively”:

Im going with good news. It certainly undercuts calls for a second stimulus package, when they cant even manage to spend the first one properly.

Oak Park trustee backs denial of venue for author

Oak Park trustee Ray Johnson backs up gay pressure on the little coffee shop that would schedule a book author to talk about therapy to make gay people straight.

With no Oak Park village board meeting this Monday, trustee Ray Johnson, who is gay, was at the Buzz. “I did not want the Buzz Café to give a forum to this gentleman who is espousing bigotry and hatred,” Johnson said, noting that Williams stood to profit from the event.

Restaurateur Dennis Murphy, on the other hand, called the pressure tactics (by gays, in this case), “un-American.”

Dennis Murphy, 67, an Oak Park resident and owner of Poor Phil’s, heard about the book discussion through a local political party’s e-mail group. Murphy says he’s not familiar with the specifics of Williams’ stance but said he’s disappointed that the man wasn’t given a chance to speak.

“No matter how distasteful, he still has the legitimate right to express his view,” Murphy said. “And I didn’t like this mob mentality, ganging up on Laura [Maychruk, Buzz proprietor] and preventing something from happening, simply because they disagreed with what the talk would be about. I just found it very un-American.”

The author is Cornelius Williams, who used to live in Oak Park and is a regular at Buzz, which is on Harrison Street in the Arts District.  The book is Transition: From Homosexual to Preacher.  He published it through Author House, an on-line service.

Gay buzz Transition bkThe book at Amazon.com

Murphy is right.  He refers to our accepted ideals of open conversation and free exchange of ideas.  When a popular elected official endorses the opposite, something’s rotten in our village.

This is very serious stuff — a perhaps hurried and offhand approval by a village official, one elected village-wide for all its citizens.  It is only tangentially, if at all, concerned with gay rights or even gay sensibilities.

Another politically active Oak Parker talked the same way, Ann Armstrong, a longtime or at least long ago pillar of the Village Manager Association (VMA), our rarely defeated semi-political party.

People at the café Monday said reparative therapy isn’t worth discussing. They suggested topics where the public could help effect change: civil unions and the military’s don’t-ask-don’t-tell policy. “Issues where information is useful,” said Ann Armstrong, 67, a straight Oak Parker who has fought for gay rights. “It’s a fool’s errand to think reparative treatment is anything but hypocrisy or snake oil.”

Here is the essence of zeal for an arguably liberal cause gone overboard in violation of liberal principles.  In that respect, it’s not a principled position but a decidedly narrow-scope view of rights.

The whole business deals a harsh setback to the gay-rights movement in Oak Park, which has hitherto enjoyed wide support.

Beltway poo-bahs vs. Gallup

Charles Krauthammer on Fox said the health care townhall protests were hurting their cause, but Gallup says otherwise:

PRINCETON, NJ — More than two-thirds of Americans (69%) are closely following news accounts of town hall meetings on healthcare reform, and while 34% say the protests make them more sympathetic to the protestors’ viewpoints and 21% say the protests make them less sympathetic, almost half either say the protests haven’t affected their views either way or have no opinion.

Charles is not the only one.  So think lots of others within the beltway.

Mort: Rush makes them do it

Last night the irrepressible Mort Kondracke further graced his Fox News panel slot with a blame-it-on-Limbaugh comment about denunciations of ObamaCare at townhall meetings.

The host Bret Baier had reported a flood of email objections to Kondracke’s and Charles Krauthammer’s slamming of protestors’ behavior — acknowledging neither the indignation it represented nor its grassroots nature.

Zoning permits in Chicago

Something from the urban trenches, Chicago-style:

The intern architect documents his day, excited by the opportunity to turn misfortune into fodder:

7:50am The doors open, and the line floods in from several points, and there is disorder as the line becomes a crowd.  I feel like I may have a chance at the front of the line, but this lasts for three minutes, the line re-forms exactly as it was outside the office.  These are not strangers to this process; they are indoctrinated.  The Dept. of Zoning has not asked these people to come early, they have done so out of necessity, and the response from Zoning has not been to change their protocol, but to open their doors and fill the list for the entire day before any other department even opens.

more more more here

Mort and Charles lose their groove

Last night Fox commentaters Mort and Charles — Kondracke and Krauthammer respectively — let it all hang out about town hall protestors. Mort got very excited, blinking disapproval at twice the usual rate, and Charles called the town-hallers’ display of indignation “a mistake,” as if GOP strategists had called the shot, one that cost the Republicans popularity during the past week by deflecting attention from the presumably unpopular Dem health-care initiative or “reform,” as they call it.

When Charles noted that GOP Sen. McConnell, minority leader, had said the demos were a bad idea, Mort spouted, “Oh come on!” which did much for the panel’s calm exchange of ideas. Did Mort think he was in a Tea Party town hall? He got indignant and excited over other people getting indignant and excited. McConnell should have got indignant and excited too — he did this once in fourth grade but gave it up as a bad idea — Mort apparently thinks.

The Republican party is “afraid of Rush Limbaugh,” further spouted Mort — are things going bad at Roll Call, where he works? Something must explain his unbridled indignation and excitement at this grass-roots indignation and excitement by taxpayers.

It was a “bad idea,” Charles said, as if the RNC had got the idea and acted on it. Charles also, albeit without indignation and excitement, was chastising citizens who just don’t know how to act. They are not his kind of people, it is become clear. Their kids don’t go to Harvard, for one thing. Tsk, tsk.

Later: What the heck was Charles talking about, it being bad strategy to go ballistic at town halls, in view of this from Rasmussen?

Public support for the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats has fallen to a new low as just 42% of U.S. voters now favor the plan. That’s down five points from two weeks ago and down eight points from six weeks ago.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that opposition to the plan has increased to 53%, up nine points since late June.

More significantly, 44% of voters strongly oppose the health care reform effort versus 26% who strongly favor it. Intensity has been stronger among opponents of the plan since the debate began

Support for Congressional Health Care Reform Falls to New Low – Rasmussen Reports\

This shows no diminution of anti-reform sentiment, as Charles (and I suppose Mort, though his bluster makes it hard to figure) claimed.