More reliable than climate change models, I trust.

On Thursday, Politico ran a story detailing how several economic models with a history of accuracy predict a win for Trump in 2020:

“[I[f the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a
second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic
models with strong track records of picking presidential winners
and losses.

“Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment,
rising wages and low gas prices — along with the historic
advantage held by incumbent presidents.”

The economy, s—-d.

“‘Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy—and that’s
more or less consensus for between now and the election—that has
a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin,’ winning 54 percent
of the popular vote to 46 for the Democrat, [Yale economist Ray
Fair] said. Fair’s model also predicted a Trump win in 2016 though it missed on Trump’s share of the popular vote.”

Fair enough.

Beats socialism any day.

Key Points

• The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a more than 49-year low last week.
• The data pointed to sustained labor market strength despite slowing economic growth.
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped to 202,000 for the week ended March 30, the lowest level since early December 1969, the Labor Department said.

Could this have something to do with how the current administration operates? Somehow I think so. And hope against hope that it’s getting wide coverage in the nation’s newspapers, etc. tomorrow. I can hope, can’t I?

Give this man a cigar.

Bill Daley: ‘Progressive is [used] just because Democrats didn’t want to call themselves liberals anymore because it was such a negative term’

And they went from progressive many years ago when progressive had become such a negative term.

You need a scorecard, really.

All in all, this is as good a place as any to keep up with leftist rant. FYI.

Thunder from the (far) left, warning about Tuesday’s big, big winner.

Lightfoot claimed to be a progressive, but her record has been scrutinized by criminal justice activists and the CTU (which backed Lightfoot’s opponent, Cook county board president Toni Preckwinkle); she drew a large donation from a murky “dark money” group that uses vague pro-austerity rhetoric as well as support from Emanuel’s personal lawyer. The city’s labor movement and left will probably find themselves joining together to fight Lightfoot in office.

Isn’t that a blessing?

Chicago’s socialist victories [Tuesday] night weren’t a fluke. Throughout the country, people are tired of low wages, soaring housing costs, privatization of public goods, budget cuts and corporate giveaways of public money. They have tried austerity and found it miserable.

If Chicago’s elections are any indication, maybe they’re ready to try socialism.

Isn’t it nice to know our socialist friends have our back, in these perilous times?

The Chi-based author of this keen, gloom- and intensity- filled analysis:

• Micah Uetricht is the managing editor of Jacobin magazine. He is the author of Strike for America: Chicago Teachers Against Austerity (Verso, 2014) and a member of the Chicago Democratic Socialists of America

You were looking to the most hope-filled reform effort since Anton Cermak? (Heh) Forget that. Roll up your sleeves, comrades. The revolution has not yet happened.

Their plans for us:

Democratic socialist candidates have at the core of their platforms the dismantling of Chicago machine politics and policies. [And after that, original sin.]

They champion views that would:

• Elevate the working class. [Oh my]

• Expand affordable housing. [Oh?]

• Push for progressive taxation. [Uh-oh]

• Stop gentrification in its tracks. [Oh]

I can hardly wait.

Multiculturalism gone wild.

Bishop Sérgio Colombo, 64, of Bragança Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil, participated in a pagan ritual outside he Bom Jesus church in Vila Bela (January 13).

The performance was organized by the diocesan council for “ecumenism.”

[Bishop] Colombo practiced so called Candomblé, an Afro-Brazilian religion related to Voodo. At the performance with roses and doves (pictured) demons called Orixás are invoked.

One of those demons made him do it? (Sorry)

Another snarky aside:

Apart from traditional paganism, Bishop Colombo hates Tradition. In 2012, he expelled an Old Rite male Carmelite community from his diocese.

Tut, tut. All in a day’s work, apparently.

Francis and Trump, peas in a pod  (As to style and unconventionality — not, obviously, in goals and positions taken.)

Finally, Bannon said he’s long been struck by a certain similarity between his former boss, Trump, and the pontiff.

“He and Trump are at the same level,” Bannon said. “He breaks news every day, and he’s also very sophisticated. He knows exactly how to drop the headline. They’re very similar … they’re honey-badgers.”

Francis, Bannon said, “is a fighter, and I have a lot of admiration for a lot of things.”

I blogged about this two years ago and three-plus years ago.

I’d say, sight unseen, that this ward may be better off with this particular alderman.

Nothing like telling constituents not to take him seriously.

Surprise: The more they profit from gummint help, the more they think it’s a good thing.

As the study notes, “This suggests that the effects of favoritism on cultural understandings grows stronger the more dependent one’s firm is on favoritism.”

An implication of this study is that being the recipient of government favoritism makes business leaders more inclined to embrace other statist cultural understandings. Cronyism, it seems, may be a gateway drug to nationalism, socialism, and pro-statist/anti-freedom positions.

So don’t be surprised when a giant of finance speaks up for the nanny state. “Gateway drug.” I like that. Consider Europe while you’re at it.