Hope-a, hope-a, rope-a, dope!

Will the stimulus work?

New York University economics professor Thomas Sargent:

The calculations that I have seen supporting the stimulus package are back-of-the-envelope ones that ignore what we have learned in the last 60 years of macroeconomic research.

Back of the envelope worked for Lincoln on his way to Gettysburg (Bob Newhart told us so), but for us in this day? 

Consider David Axelrod’s reaction, per WSJ.com’s Political Diary, to being asked about whether it will work:

Mr. Axelrod told Fox News that he didn’t view the CBO [Congressional Budget Office] [pessimistic] findings as important. He said the government has no choice but to act quickly in the current “national emergency” and “that a lot of these investments are ones that are going to pay dividends in the short term and the long term.”

This way lies madness.  Act quickly doing what?  Does it matter?  Of course.  So where does A-rod come off dismissing these economist hotshots hired by Congress and led by a Dem appointee?  Hack.

Woe is us who came to cheer

A bad experience for Obama fans who waited for hours with their purple tickets, getting nowhere, until noon and the end of it.

And then, shear, crushing disappointment descends over the crowd. Unlike the smiles on all the faces you walked by on, say, election night, or in the metro last night, this crowd had to summon up all they had left after multiple hours in the cold to give a tepid ovation to the inauguration of a new president.

Symbolic of the presidency to come.

Hospital news, going digital, knowing things

RUSHING THINGS . . . . Reading Chi Trib, I found quite an item in the obits.  Advice: always read the obits, an ongoing chronicle of comings and goings, emphasis on the latter, in which the noosepaper almost always gets it right, even dousing some of its endemic, genetic, inbred zest for gossip and other bad news.

This item, however, in the obit for an apparently admirable woman who died at 91 after a long life as wife, mother (of 5), widow, and school teacher, has the news that Oak Park has a “Rush West Suburban Hospital.”  This encompasses a major change that no local paper has uncovered, since West Sub has been owned by the Resurrectionist Sisters for several years and Oak Park Hospital has been a Rush Medical Center affiliate for as many.

TELEPHONY . . . . Meanwhile, back at the old homestead, we are without landline telephone, having had AT&T in our house yesterday to digitalize us stem to stern.  Painless as it occurred, painful in the aftermath, as James, who was a pleasure to have around for five or six hours, had not connected my desk phone to anything and (not his fault) had left us w/o a dial tone while central office finished the digitalization.

My subsequent mistake was to make two calls to the U-Verse help people when one would have been enough.  The first gave me Ashley, who correctly decided our internal connection problems called for a repair person to make a house call, which he or she will do tomorrow afternoon, the earliest time available.  The second, made for no good reason to tell them we had a dial tone (which turned out illusory) gave me Gregory, who incorrectly analyzed the problem and wanted to cancel my repair person, which I did not do, arguing that I still had the office-phone connection problem.  More later . . . .

STIMULATING . . . . Again to Chi Trib, where Jonah Goldberg’s column leapt at me off the page with his quite readable notations about government knowing best (not) and “everybody” knowing what works (not).  Everybody knew Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, for instance, everybody in Dan Rather’s CBS shop knew those Texas National Guard memos were legit — everybody knew until everybody didn’t.

So it is with the grand moguls of government-directed finance — or Citigroup– and Robert Rubin-directed, for that matter — how things will or would work.  Stimuli don’t work, at least didn’t since World War II, Goldberg says, citing economist Bruce Bartlett.  Why he doesn’t note its most famous failure, under FDR, I don’t know.

Desperately seeking a new Rahm

Some very good news from Fifth-Illinois, where the slaters could not agree on a new Rahm Emanuel.

That mea[n]s the March 3 primary will be an open one with no party endorsed candidate. State Rep. John Fritchey (D-Chicago) came closest, but could not quite reach the 50 percent (plus one) benchmark.

What, no Fritchey?  Will his zoning business suffer, he “who handles City Hall zoning cases for private clients [and] has been a state legislator since 1996”?

The insiders, convened by State Sen. James DeLeo (D-Chicago) — “D-Howya doin’?” says John Kass — did not go along, they being city-suburban, including citizens from

much of the North Side of City of Chicago from Lake Michigan into the western suburbs [including] Schiller Park, Franklin Park, River Grove, Elmwood Park, Northlake, and Melrose Park.[3] Wrigley Field is located in this district, along with the Chicago neighborhoods of Lakeview, Uptown, and Lincoln Park.

It’s always nice to see disagreement among people whose nearest thing to a standard-bearer is a guy who does govt.-related business on the side while representing us in elective office.

“We dilute the strength of the party,” urged Ald. Patrick O’Connor, of the 40th ward, when “we” fail to slate someone. 

Is that so bad in these scandalous times?

 

Skunk alert! Party-pooper sighted

Trouble ahead, predicts Dick Morris:

Obama has given power to men and women who really don’t believe terrorism is much of a problem. They implicitly share the European view that an attack here or there is not worth turning what they regard as constitutional guarantees on their heads. The result is that we will be vastly more vulnerable and have a good chance of being hit again soon.

If nothing else, this indirectly highlights Bushies’ success in protecting us, which isn’t much discussed in these days of joy and happiness at the coming of The One.

Young black shooters

NY Times says one answer to black-boys homicide rates, ten times whites’, is “getting them jobs.”  Fine, says Heather Mac Donald.  Jobs for all is an excellent goal.

But the biggest barrier to the employment of crime-prone inner-city youth isn’t lack of real or even make-work jobs; rather, it’s their own willingness to show up every day on time and accept authority.

Not that “many inner-city teens aren’t courteous and enthusiastic workers.”  But:

Few teenagers from any background possess the self-discipline and reliability that employers seek; teens growing up in chaotic home environments are even less likely to have developed a work ethic.

Hard times add to crime rates, as NYT editorializes?  Hardly, says Mac D:

The claim that crime results from a bad economy has limited empirical backing in general, but it is particularly ludicrous applied to juvenile violence. It is not the collapse of consumer lending that induces a 16-year-old to shoot a rival who “disses” his girlfriend; it is a failure of self-control and a distorted understanding of self-worth.

Missing from the NYT editorial is the M-word:

The marriage imperative civilizes boys. By contrast, in a world where it is unusual for a man to marry the mother of his children, boys fail to learn the most basic lesson of personal responsibility: you are responsible for your children. Freed of the social expectation that they will have to provide a stable home for their offspring, boys have little incentive to restrain their impulses and develop bourgeois habits.

Not that anyone knows how to change the culture that has little room for marriage, but wouldn’t big ideas about how to solve the black youth murder rate have something to say about the problem, even in the NY Times?

Give prosperity a chance

Will we learn from or repeat history?

The hero of Waterloo was the Duke of Wellington, but the hero of the peace that followed was a Whig member of Parliament, Henry Brougham, who led the charge in 1815 for abolition of the income tax. Don’t do it, said the conventionally wise; we have a 915-million-pound debt to pay off.

But Brougham (say “Broom”) and his allies did it anyway. Business got its stimulus, and the tax revenues poured in, reducing the debt considerably and starting a 60-year bull market for the empire. It’s “the way the world works,” as in the title of Jude Wanniski’s 1978 book. (Berwyn library has it, FYI.)

You don’t always generate more tax revenues with higher tax rates. If you think you do, Wanniski has an extended economic and historical argument to help you get over it, including chapter and verse on this British case.

There’s more on the low-tax-high-prosperity theme at my column for the month at Wednesday Journal of Oak Park & River Forest

Tale of two studies

The problem, newly discovered (!) is that black boys kill each other in alarming numbers. The answer, from a Northeastern U. academic, is clear:

Seizing on President-elect Barack Obama‘s incoming administration as an opportunity for more funding, Fox added: “There is an urgency for reinvestment in children and families. In essence, we need a bailout for kids at risk.”

And if you were wondering whom to blame, that’s easy:

The study partly blamed Bush administration grant cuts to local police and juvenile crime prevention programs for the surge in crimes by young black men and teens. Incoming Vice President Joe Biden has promised funding to put 50,000 new police officers on the street to help bring violent crime rates back to a decade-long annual decline that began in the mid-1990s, after then-President Bill Clinton provided local officials with money to hire 100,000 new cops.

Thank you, AP.  Wall St. Jnl, on the other hand, has an ameliorating quote:

James Alan Fox, co-author of the study, attributed the numbers to a variety of issues, including cuts in funding for local law-enforcement programs that were credited with lowering the nation’s record murder rates in the 1990s. “It’s hard to pin down cause and effect,” Mr. Fox said.

He adds, judiciously:

Mr. Fox said the cuts in law-enforcement programs and activities geared toward youth disproportionately affect African-Americans because they are more likely than their white counterparts to come from communities where there is inadequate adult supervision, high rates of single-parent homes, inferior schools and widespread gang activity.

“Cuts in support for youth have a much greater impact on black families who don’t have alternatives,” Mr. Fox said.

Mr. Fox, we hardly knew ye from the AP account, which operates somewhat sloppily out of its own preferred “narrative,” as rhetoricians would have it.  It’s why one can do better at Wall St. Jnl, every day in almost every way.

It’s over for now

Here’s a grabber:

Easily one of the most important stories of 2008 has been all the evidence suggesting that this may be looked back on as the year when there was a turning point in the great worldwide panic over man-made global warming. Just when politicians in Europe and America have been adopting the most costly and damaging measures politicians have ever proposed, to combat this supposed menace, the tide has turned in three significant respects.

Temps are dropping like flies.  What’s more,

the poles remain defiantly icebound and those polar bears fail to drown. All those hysterical predictions that we are seeing more droughts and hurricanes than ever before have infuriatingly failed to materialise.

The end of the world has been delayed.

Appointment made in heaven

Taking our mind off Blago:

A federal grand jury is investigating how a company that advised Jefferson County, Alabama, on bond deals that threaten to cause the biggest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history, did similar work in New Mexico after making contributions to Governor Bill Richardson’s political action committees.

How about Bill R. for Commerce?