More reliable than climate change models, I trust.

On Thursday, Politico ran a story detailing how several economic models with a history of accuracy predict a win for Trump in 2020:

“[I[f the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a
second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic
models with strong track records of picking presidential winners
and losses.

“Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment,
rising wages and low gas prices — along with the historic
advantage held by incumbent presidents.”

The economy, s—-d.

“‘Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy—and that’s
more or less consensus for between now and the election—that has
a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin,’ winning 54 percent
of the popular vote to 46 for the Democrat, [Yale economist Ray
Fair] said. Fair’s model also predicted a Trump win in 2016 though it missed on Trump’s share of the popular vote.”

Fair enough.